In a surprising twist of debate, Elon Musk has commented on the ongoing speculation surrounding the fate of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the disgraced founder of FTX, on getting a pardon.
In response to an X post about Bankman-Fried’s past as the second-largest donor to the Democratic Party, Musk commented, “I will be shocked if this doesn’t happen.”
Musk’s comment has attracted increased attention from observers who believe that SBF’s political contributions and connections could influence the justice system.
However, current betting markets on Polymarket suggest only a 5% – 10% chance of a pardon.
Elon Musk Predicts SBF Would Be Pardoned: Can Polymarket Be Wrong This Time?
The discussion originated from a wager on Polymarket that began circulating in April.
The wager questioned whether Biden would exercise his presidential powers to pardon, commute, or grant a reprieve to Bankman-Fried.
Polymarket participants have largely dismissed the likelihood of such a move, with the odds lingering around a meager 5% to 10%.
Source: Polymath
Bankman-Fried’s journey from crypto wunderkind to a convicted fraudster is one of the most dramatic downfalls in recent financial history.
At the height of his career, SBF was seen as a leading force in the crypto industry, lauded for founding FTX in 2019 and rapidly transforming it into one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
His influence extended beyond digital finance. He carefully constructed a public persona that merged tech innovation with social responsibility.
By 2020, Bankman-Fried had become one of the most recognizable names in crypto and politics, building a reputation as a key donor and lobbyist.
At this point, Bankman-Fried’s entanglement with US politics becomes undeniable.
In the 2020 presidential race, he emerged as one of the largest contributors to Biden’s campaign, donating a substantial $5.2 million.
This generous backing bolstered his reputation as a crypto prodigy and a formidable political player.
While Bankman-Fried maintained a bipartisan approach to donations, records indicate that approximately 92% of his political contributions were directed toward Democrats.
However, the collapse of FTX in late 2022 shattered Bankman-Fried’s public image, dragging him into a vortex of legal battles and public condemnation.
Bankman-Fried was accused of orchestrating one of the most significant financial frauds in recent history.
His downfall has cast a long shadow over the Democratic Party, prompting some Republican figures to call for greater transparency regarding the fate of his campaign donations.
Despite this pressure, the Biden administration has yet to address returning or reallocating the contributions formally.
Will President Biden Pardon The Biggest Fraudster In Crypto History?
In December 2022, FTX filed for bankruptcy, exposing an $8 billion hole in customer accounts.
Investigations revealed that SBF had funneled client funds into Alameda Research to cover its losses, effectively using depositor money to bankroll risky ventures.
By October 2023, Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and conspiracy charges. His sentencing in March 2024 dealt him 25 years in federal prison.
Despite his conviction and imprisonment, Bankman-Fried’s political connections bring hope to him.
Presidential pardons have historically been a topic of public debate, especially when they apply to individuals with close ties to political elites.
The prospect of Biden issuing such a pardon, whether now or during his final days in office, remains contentious, especially as the 2025 Trump inauguration gets closer.
Polymarket’s 5% odds may seem low, but things can change quickly. For now, SBF’s fate still leaves him in prison.
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